Dataset description

The dataset can be downloaded following the method described in Getting started.

EBM is a bottom up model that calculates the energy need and energy usage of the Norwegian building stock. The foundation of the model and the datasets is the data on area and building age. The current datasets have the building area stock from 2020, and all area after this is modelled. The available datasets are considered a base scenario, meaning the analysis and assumptions are based on current and adopted policy.

There are two available datasets for EBM, a short term analysis and a long term analysis. The two datasets are updated at different times in the relation to the publication of NVEs short- and long term electricity market analysis. The most recent dataset was made for the short term analysis Status and development in the power system 2025-2030. The report for the long term analysis can be found here Long electricity market analysis 2025. The short term analysis is valid for the given start year plus 5 years. The long term analysis is valid from the given start year until 2050.

An important part of updating the datasets is the calibration step. The model is calibrated to trends in historical energy use to create a start point for the analysis. Historical trends and statistics from several years are used to create the calibration year. This means the calibration year is an “ideal model year”, and it can differ from the actual statistical year. How to calibrate the model is explained here Calibrating the model.

Limitations

The current version of the two datasets and their respective analysis have the following imitations and data assumptions:

  • “Norgespris” has not been taken into account in the current version.

  • The impact of the ageing populations is not accounted for.

  • Rebound effects of energy efficiency measures are not included.

  • Public and private buildings are not defined.

Dataset format

The format of the name of the dataset is “short/long_analysis_*start year*”. Where start year is the start year used in EBM for the relevant analysis.

Changelog

Version 2.1 Short_analysis_2025 - 2026-04-26

  • rush_period_years is changed from 75 to 76 in demolition s-curve parameters for house and apartment block.

    • Small changes to rush_share and never_share to account for the change in rush_period_years.

Version 2.0 Short_analysis_2025 - 2025-12-06

  • Demolition s-curves have been modified for houses and apartment blocks to be more in line with historical statistics.

  • The reduction curve on LED lighting has been changed from ending in 2030 to ending in 2025 for houses and apartment blocks. This means that the electricity reduction potential has already happened resulting in lower electricity reduction from LED.

  • The heating system efficiency for district heating and electric boilers are changed from 0,98 to 0,8 to better take distribution losses into account.

  • Updated the distribution of houses and apartment blocks when constructing new households. Resulting in minor changes.

  • Calibration households:

    • Electricity per person is changed to 6 900 kWh/person per year.

    • District heating: assume a 2 TWh consumption.

    • Bio (fuel wood) use in households is increased from 3 800 kWh per household to 3 900 kWh per household per year.

  • Calibration non-residential buildings:

    • Electricity per person is changed to 4 300 kWh/person per year.

    • District heating: increasing from 4 TWh to 4,2 TWh.

Version 1.0 Long_analysis_2024 - 2025-01-20

  • First dataset version. Must be considered a work in progress.

Last Updated on 2026-06-29

Version: 1.1.0.